We incorporate an exogenous variable in the SCM that is learned and utilised for reasoning about interventionsintheobservation.

This study proposes an interpretable prediction framework with literature-informed fine-tuned (LIFT) LLMs for truck driving risk prediction. The framework integrates an LLM-driven Inference Core that predicts and explains truck driving risk, a Literature Processing Pipeline that filters and summarizes domain-specific literature into a literature knowledge base, and a Result Evaluator that evaluates the prediction performance as well as the interpretability of the LIFT LLM. After fine-tuning on a real-world truck driving risk dataset, the LIFT LLM achieved accurate risk prediction, outperforming benchmark models by 26.7% in recall and 10.1% in F1-score. Furthermore, guided by the literature knowledge base automatically constructed from 299 domain papers, the LIFT LLM produced variable importance ranking consistent with that derived from the benchmark model, while demonstrating robustness in interpretation results to various data sampling conditions. The LIFT LLM also identified potential risky scenarios by detecting key combination of variables in truck driving risk, which were verified by PERMANOVA tests. Finally, we demonstrated the contribution of the literature knowledge base and the fine-tuning process in the interpretability of the LIFT LLM, and discussed the potential of the LIFT LLM in data-driven knowledge discovery.

We provide a brief background on counterfactuals. Further details can be found in [1].

Despite its promise and the tremendous advances in nonlinear optimization solvers in recent years, trajectory optimization has primarily been constrained to offline usage due to the limited compute capabilities of radiation hardened flight computers [3]. However, with a flurry of proposed mission concepts that call for increasingly greater on-board autonomy [4], bridging this gap in the state-of-practice is necessary to allow for scaling current trajectory design techniques for future missions. Recently, researchers have turned to machine learning and data-driven techniques as a promising method for reducing the runtimes necessary for solving challenging constrained optimization problems [5, 6]. Such approaches entail learning what is known as the problem-to-solution mapping between the problem parameters that vary between repeated instances of solving the trajectory optimization problem to the full optimization solution and these works typically use a Deep Neural Network (DNN) to model this mapping [7-9]. Given parameters of new instances of the trajectory optimization problem, this problem-to-solution mapping can be used online to yield candidate trajectories to warm start the nonlinear optimization solver and this warm start can enable significant solution speed ups. One shortcoming of these aforementioned data-driven approaches is that they have limited scope of use and the learned problem-to-solution mapping only applies for one specific trajectory optimization formulation. With a change to the mission design specifications that yields, e.g., a different optimization constraint, a new problem-to-solution mapping has to be learned offline and this necessitates generating a new dataset of solved trajectory optimization problems. To this end, our work explores the use of compositional diffusion modeling to allow for generalizable learning of the problem-to-solution mapping and equip mission designers with the ability to interleave different learned models to satisfy a rich set of trajectory design specifications. Compositional diffusion modeling enables training of a model to both sample and plan from.

We propose MMD-OPT: a sample-efficient approach for minimizing the risk of collision under arbitrary prediction distribution of the dynamic obstacles. MMD-OPT is based on embedding distribution in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) and the associated Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We show how these two concepts can be used to define a sample efficient surrogate for collision risk estimate. We perform extensive simulations to validate the effectiveness of MMD-OPT on both synthetic and real-world datasets. Importantly, we show that trajectory optimization with our MMD-based collision risk surrogate leads to safer trajectories at low sample regimes than popular alternatives based on Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR).

This paper designs novel nonparametric Bellman mappings in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) for reinforcement learning (RL). The proposed mappings benefit from the rich approximating properties of RKHSs, adopt no assumptions on the statistics of the data owing to their nonparametric nature, require no knowledge on transition probabilities of Markov decision processes, and may operate without any training data. Moreover, they allow for sampling on-the-fly via the design of trajectory samples, re-use past test data via experience replay, effect dimensionality reduction by random Fourier features, and enable computationally lightweight operations to fit into efficient online or time-adaptive learning. The paper offers also a variational framework to design the free parameters of the proposed Bellman mappings, and shows that appropriate choices of those parameters yield several popular Bellman-mapping designs. As an application, the proposed mappings are employed to offer a novel solution to the problem of countering outliers in adaptive filtering. More specifically, with no prior information on the statistics of the outliers and no training data, a policy-iteration algorithm is introduced to select online, per time instance, the ``optimal'' coefficient p in the least-mean-p-power-error method. Numerical tests on synthetic data showcase, in most of the cases, the superior performance of the proposed solution over several RL and non-RL schemes.

Our work aims to present a high-performance and modular sampling-based trajectory planning algorithm for autonomous vehicles. This algorithm is tailored to address the complex challenges in solution space construction and optimization problem formulation within the path planning domain. Our method employs a multi-objective optimization strategy for efficient navigation in static and highly dynamic environments, focusing on optimizing trajectory comfort, safety, and path precision. This algorithm was then used to analyze the algorithm performance and success rate in 1750 virtual complex urban and highway scenarios. Our results demonstrate fast calculation times (8ms for 800 trajectories), a high success rate in complex scenarios (88%), and easy adaptability with different modules presented. The most noticeable difference exhibited was the fast trajectory sampling, feasibility check, and cost evaluation step across various trajectory counts. While our study presents promising results, it's important to note that our assessments have been conducted exclusively in simulated environments, and real-world testing is required to fully validate our findings. The code and the additional modules used in this research are publicly available as open-source software and can be accessed at the following link: https://github.com/TUM-AVS/Frenetix-Motion-Planner.

Visualization tools can help synthetic biologists and molecular programmers understand the complex reactive pathways of nucleic acid reactions, which can be designed for many potential applications and can be modelled using a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). Here we present ViDa, a new visualization approach for DNA reaction trajectories that uses a 2D embedding of the secondary structure state space underlying the CTMC model. To this end, we integrate a scattering transform of the secondary structure adjacency, a variational autoencoder, and a nonlinear dimensionality reduction method. We augment the training loss with domain-specific supervised terms that capture both thermodynamic and kinetic features. We assess ViDa on two well-studied DNA hybridization reactions. Our results demonstrate that the domain-specific features lead to significant quality improvements over the state-of-the-art in DNA state space visualization, successfully separating different folding pathways and thus providing useful insights into dominant reaction mechanisms.

Safe autonomous driving critically depends on how well the ego-vehicle can predict the trajectories of neighboring vehicles. To this end, several trajectory prediction algorithms have been presented in the existing literature. Many of these approaches output a multi-modal distribution of obstacle trajectories instead of a single deterministic prediction to account for the underlying uncertainty. However, existing planners cannot handle the multi-modality based on just sample-level information of the predictions. With this motivation, this paper proposes a trajectory optimizer that can leverage the distributional aspects of the prediction in a computationally tractable and sample-efficient manner. Our optimizer can work with arbitrarily complex distributions and thus can be used with output distribution represented as a deep neural network. The core of our approach is built on embedding distribution in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS), which we leverage in two ways. First, we propose an RKHS embedding approach to select probable samples from the obstacle trajectory distribution. Second, we rephrase chance-constrained optimization as distribution matching in RKHS and propose a novel sampling-based optimizer for its solution. We validate our approach with hand-crafted and neural network-based predictors trained on real-world datasets and show improvement over the existing stochastic optimization approaches in safety metrics.

Energy hubs convert and distribute energy resources by combining different energy inputs through multiple conversion and storage components. The optimal operation of the energy hub exploits its flexibility to increase the energy efficiency and reduce the operational costs. However, uncertainties in the demand present challenges to energy hub optimization. In this paper, we propose a stochastic MPC controller to minimize energy costs using chance constraints for the uncertain electricity and thermal demands. Historical data is used to build a demand prediction model based on Gaussian processes to generate a forecast of the future electricity and heat demands. The stochastic optimization problem is solved via the Scenario Approach by sampling multi-step demand trajectories from the derived prediction model. The performance of the proposed predictor and of the stochastic controller is verified on a simulated energy hub model and demand data from a real building.